{"id":2028,"date":"2026-06-09T10:07:28","date_gmt":"2026-06-09T08:07:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swisswhoswho.ch\/?p=2028"},"modified":"2026-06-09T18:30:04","modified_gmt":"2026-06-09T16:30:04","slug":"major-interview-with-hasni-abidi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swisswhoswho.ch\/en\/interviews\/major-interviews-the-big-conversations\/major-interview-with-hasni-abidi\/","title":{"rendered":"Major Interview \u2013 Hasni Abidi"},"content":{"rendered":"
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1<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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As the philosopher Raymond Aron pointed out, the Middle East is caught in a strategic paradox: a full-scale war remains unlikely there, largely due to the deterrent effect of Israel\u2019s military\u2014and nuclear\u2014superiority; yet a general peace remains just as unlikely, given the deep-rooted historical, memorial, identity-based and cultural dimensions of the conflict. Caught between an impossible war and an elusive peace, the region seems condemned to chronic instability. Does this interpretation still shed light on the current crises, from the Levant to the Maghreb?<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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The analytical framework proposed by Raymond Aron remains highly relevant for understanding the contemporary dynamics at play across the Middle East and North Africa, although it now needs to be qualified and applied on a more regional basis. Whilst Israel\u2019s military superiority, bolstered by its nuclear arsenal, has long helped establish a balance of deterrence that makes a large-scale conventional inter-state war highly unlikely, the 2026 war involving Iran demonstrated that this assumption could be called into question when the very survival of a regime or a major regional state is directly at stake.<\/p>

This superiority gives Israel the capacity for regional strategic initiative, which is expressed both through direct military action and through the consolidation of security alliances, notably via the Abraham Accords or cooperation with several Gulf states. However, this form of hegemony remains subject to asymmetric challenges, particularly from Iran, which favours indirect strategies relying on proxy networks, hybrid warfare and regional strategic depth.<\/p>

In this context, calls for a nuclear-free Middle East must be understood as political and strategic tools. Indeed, behind the normative rhetoric, espoused in particular by Iran, lies a desire to redress the conventional imbalance vis-\u00e0-vis Israel. However, nuclear weapons are primarily a means of deterrence, their use being structurally unlikely due to the risks of uncontrollable escalation that it would entail.<\/p>

This Aronian interpretation, however, appears less applicable in the Maghreb, where rivalries\u2014particularly between Morocco and Algeria\u2014are set against a backdrop of a conflict-ridden status quo shaped by historical legacies, in particular the issue of Western Sahara, as well as by conventional deterrence mechanisms, without any dynamic of direct military confrontation.<\/p>

In the Middle East, however, the post-2003 period marks a major turning point. The Iraq War destroyed the tripolar balance in the Gulf between Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, weakened the mechanisms by which the United States maintained a balance of power from a distance, and opened the door to interlinked, protracted and multi-localised conflicts. Iran\u2019s regional ambitions, combined with repeated Israeli military interventions, have thus consolidated a regional system based on permanent conflict rather than stabilisation.<\/p>

Since 2023, the war has not yet escalated into a regional conflict involving direct clashes between all the states in the region, but the dynamics now appear to be deeply entrenched at a regional level, as the repercussions of the various conflicts are affecting all the actors involved. Instability in the region remains all the more chronic, given the impact of the weakening of Israeli and Iranian deterrence at various levels, which ultimately contributed to intensifying their confrontation directly, whereas it had remained indirect until 2024. This conflict will determine the region\u2019s future through the balance of power and the prospects for stability.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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2<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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Crises are unfolding one after another in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iran. Are we facing a temporary crisis or a lasting reshaping of the regional order?<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Never before in the post-1945 Middle East has the region been engulfed by such a proliferation of simultaneous conflict zones. The entire area between Israel, Iran and the Arabian Peninsula has been affected, directly or indirectly, by the dynamics of war or confrontation. The crisis might have been interpreted as a temporary phenomenon had the post-2023 period not given rise to such a concentration of interconnected conflicts and rivalries, and had so many conflicts not unfolded in such a short space of time over the past three years. However, the lasting restructuring of the regional order remains unfinished.<\/p>

The confrontation between Israel and Iran, which has intensified since 2024, is based on a twofold asymmetry: Israeli conventional military superiority on the one hand, and, on the other, Iran\u2019s capacity for indirect projection based on strategic disruption, regional depth and the axis of resistance. This duality contributes to increased fragmentation in the region and limits the prospects for stabilisation in the short term. Iran\u2019s levers of influence remain resilient, whilst an open confrontation against the proxies of this axis, particularly in Lebanon or Yemen, would appear to be protracted, costly and politically risky for the actors involved.<\/p>

The outbreak of a war with Iran on an unprecedented scale in 2026, since the invasion of Iraq in 2003, undeniably marked a new phase in the conflicts in the Middle East, given Iran\u2019s position as a major regional player, adept at asymmetric warfare for half a century. By adopting an advanced defence strategy, Iran\u2019s objective was to create a security buffer zone outside its territory, which was gradually eroded following the targeted assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, in September 2024, followed by the fall of Bashar al-Assad\u2019s Syria in December of the same year. Since June 2025, having been targeted twice during conflicts involving the assassination of Iran\u2019s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei last February, Iran\u2019s logic of a return to the status quo ante bellum appears complex. Indeed, its capacity to cause disruption is proving particularly effective and tends to strengthen its position of strength.<\/p>

The logic of \u00abneither war nor peace\u00bb is increasingly becoming the norm as an unstable mode of regulation, particularly in relations between Israel and Iran, with the United States in the background. Nevertheless, a realignment is indeed underway, though it manifests itself more through indirect and extra-regional effects than through a stabilised restructuring of the regional order.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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3<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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Following the hopes raised by the Arab Spring, how do you explain the resurgence of authoritarian tendencies in several countries across the Maghreb and the Middle East?<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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The reasons behind the resurgence of authoritarianism can be explained, first and foremost, by the structural resilience of authoritarian state apparatuses across the Arab world. The hopes born of the 2011 revolutions had certainly ushered in a phase of political transformation and expressed a collective aspiration for change, but these dynamics were quickly reshaped by the strategies of the political and military elites, who managed to co-opt or neutralise a large part of the protests.<\/p>

In this context, authoritarianism enjoys a structural advantage stemming from its ability to circumvent temporal and institutional constraints. As the sociologist Juan Linz has pointed out, democracy is subject to \u00abtemporal constraints\u00bb linked to deliberation, negotiation and political competition, whereas authoritarian regimes have a capacity for faster and more centralised action, which is particularly effective in contexts of crisis or instability. Inter-state rivalries in the Arab world have also helped to reinforce these dynamics, by fostering the emergence of regimes perceived as guarantors of stability and continuity in an unstable regional environment. Political and security elites have thus consolidated their power by relying not only on coercive measures but also on strategies of legitimisation based on security and order.<\/p>

The omnipresence of the military as a central political institution in many Arab countries is a key factor in this authoritarian resilience, ensuring continuity of power and limiting the emergence of autonomous countervailing forces. Furthermore, the processes of economic liberalisation undertaken over the past several decades have generally not been accompanied by political liberalisation, thereby creating a structural imbalance between economic openness and institutional rigidity.<\/p>

The Tunisian case has long been presented as an exception in the region, due to its post-2011 transition, but this experience has revealed its limitations with the gradual return to a more authoritarian approach under Kais Saied, illustrating the fragility of transitions in the absence of consolidated institutions. As such, the consolidation of robust civil institutions appears to be an essential condition for limiting the resilience of authoritarianism and enabling the gradual emergence of countervailing powers. Western democracies owe much of their stability to the existence of these institutionalised countervailing powers, which remain largely absent or weak in Arab countries following 2011.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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4<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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We are seeing a rise in political Islam in various forms \u2014 institutional, militant or radical. How can we distinguish today between Islamism, political Salafism and jihadism in terms of their regional influence?<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Although these three concepts are sometimes linked in their social and ideological contexts, they refer to realities that are distinct in terms of their nature, objectives and modes of action. Islamism, or political Islam, refers to a movement that seeks to integrate Islamic principles into the organisation of politics and society. It is essentially a political movement, which can operate within institutional and electoral frameworks, and which seeks to transform the state from within according to religious principles, without necessarily challenging existing state structures.<\/p>

Political Salafism, for its part, represents a strict and literalist interpretation of Islam, historically often associated with Saudi Wahhabism. It is characterised by a desire for progressive social and religious transformation, centred on preaching, moral guidance and the dissemination of doctrine. It can also be used as an instrument of geopolitical and cultural influence by certain states, particularly in the Gulf region.<\/p>

Jihadism, finally, represents a radical break with the two previous movements. It is based on an ideology of transnational armed struggle, the delegitimisation of existing states\u2014which it regards as illegitimate\u2014and a logic of global violent confrontation. Unlike institutional Islamism or quietist or political Salafism, jihadism rejects state frameworks and favours armed and violent action as its primary mode of political expression. These three categories must be distinguished not only by their ideological references, but above all by their modes of action, their relationship with the state, and their strategies for regional influence. The exercise of power by Islamists in Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt and Turkey has demonstrated the limitations of religiously oriented political parties in social, political and economic governance.
In short, the marginalisation of a movement representing a significant section of society has benefited the Islamists, who have ultimately lost some of their appeal by becoming involved in the affairs of the city.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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5<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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Does the Israeli-Palestinian conflict still act as an ideological catalyst for Islamist movements, or are their motivations now more national and social than geopolitical?<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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For a long time, Islamist movements have drawn on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a powerful ideological catalyst, enabling them to construct narratives of political legitimacy and transnational mobilisation around the Palestinian cause. This conflict has thus long functioned as a central reference point in the Islamist political imagination, particularly in its dimension of challenging the regional and international order. However, this centrality now varies according to the geographical location and political roots of the movements concerned. Hamas, for example, is directly part of this dynamic, insofar as its actions are inseparable from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which constitutes the very core of its political and military legitimacy.<\/p>

Conversely, other Islamist organisations have developed approaches that are more territorially and nationally focused. This is particularly true of Hayat Tahrir Al Sham in Syria, which emerged from successive realignments of Islamist armed groups and is linked to the career of Ahmed Al Sharaa. In this case, the dynamics of legitimisation are shaped less by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict than by internal issues of power, territorial control and local governance. This does not, however, imply an absence of a geopolitical dimension. On the contrary, these dynamics remain strongly influenced by regional balances of power, particularly the strategies of influence pursued by Turkey or certain Gulf states, which are involved in the processes of stabilisation or post-conflict reconstruction in Syria.<\/p>

Consequently, these two approaches coexist today in the Middle East. On the one hand, an Islamisation of politics still shaped by historical transnational factors; on the other, a reterritorialisation of Islamist dynamics, focused more on power relations and national configurations.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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6<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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There is a real issue of leadership\u2014or rather, a lack of enlightened leadership\u2014in the region. In the face of these rising tensions, which forces\u2014civil society, economic reforms, education, or a new generation of politicians\u2014could offer a credible alternative to the polarisation between authoritarianism and Islamism?<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Civil society is a key driver of political change, as demonstrated by the mass protests during the Arab Spring of 2011, serving as a forum for the expression of social and political demands outside traditional institutional frameworks. It thus plays an essential role in the emergence of protest movements and political mobilisation. However, it cannot, on its own, ensure a sustainable democratic transition. Indeed, without institutional and political channels, social mobilisations risk remaining fragmented or failing to translate into structural transformation of the political order.<\/p>

In this context, the emergence of a new generation of political actors could prove to be a significant driving force for change. Their stance depends largely on a cost-benefit analysis of the democratic model, that is to say, on an assessment of the political, economic and social benefits of an open system compared with the constraints it imposes on the elites. Furthermore, the question of including actors who were initially undemocratic or only marginally democratic in the transition processes appears to be a central issue. Historical experience shows that certain political transitions can only stabilise through the gradual integration of actors from authoritarian or hybrid systems, in order to prevent their marginalisation and radicalisation. Democratisation cannot be viewed solely as a process of rupture, but also as a gradual dynamic of transformation and the progressive inclusion of the various actors in the political arena.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

1 As the philosopher Raymond Aron pointed out, the Middle East is caught in a strategic paradox: a full-scale war remains unlikely there, largely due to the deterrent effect of Israel\u2019s military\u2014and nuclear\u2014superiority; yet a general peace remains just as unlikely, given the historical, memory-related, identity-based and [\u2026]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2055,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"elementor_theme","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"pmpro_default_level":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2028","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-major-interviews-les-grandes-conversations","pmpro-has-access"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHasni Abidi analyse les crises et l'avenir du Moyen-Orient<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Dans cet entretien exclusif, Hasni Abidi analyse les crises 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